But today I watched this clip (link) and it kind of got me to thinking on the Brittney Grner incident.
At the risk of apophenia, I also started thinking about 2024 elections, The Citizen Resident of Mar-a-Lago and his current legal situation(s), and the fact that America may have collectively calmed itself a bit since 2020, but we're still a powder keg of anger and division just waiting for the wrong spark at the wrong moment.
I worry this may be that spark, and this may be that moment. And (obviously?) I'll use this post to explain why I worry this to be true.
As I said, my first thought when the news of Mr. G's being detained went to Ms. Griner's ordeal. I think that's where most people had their first thought go as well. And I think that might be intentional. We sort of forgot about Russia's (dis)information and social media warfront since the ground war started in Ukraine. With Twitter having gone full laissez-faire, I assumed there would be increased Russian Bot/Troll/disinformation activity mixed in with an increase in activity of our own homegrown extremists..
So my worry is this:
If the United States doesn't give up someone big in a prisoner swap, and do it quick, Russia will start a disinformation/troll/bot campaign that could revert us back the mindset that led to the Orange Era and culminated in the 6 January insurrection.
There will be (and probably already are) increasingly frequent posts that bring up the races of Mr. G and Ms. Griner, their crimes (reporting vs. essentially a drug bust), the fact that America already "chose" Griner over Mr. Whelan, the fact that in both cases it's the same president (who is a Democrat), and the indictment(s) of The Orange Guy being part of some anti-White scheme (led by Blackness Incarnate, Joe Biden of course) or some such.
Coupled with the Civil War rhetoric, the tension with all the shootings (and simultaneous talks of gun control), inflation and the harsh effect it's had on an already pummeled economy, etc. ..... I just worry this is exactly the kind of thing that will push us to the limit and cause us to, for lack of a better word, relapse, And just as we're just making good progress in our rehabilitation.
I think this might be more thought out than it may appear on the surface. I think that Putin would consider Griner's arrest a strategically serendipitous catch. Black, female, member of the LGBTQ+ community, caught with drugs...basically an avatar of all the things MAGA hates.
After detaining Ms. Griner, all that was left to do was wait until the elections were a little closer and Orange Guy was indicted, and then find some white guy to hold up as a foil and see what America does.
It's a win-win for Russia. If America caves and does a prisoner swap, Russia wins back someone probably just as bad (or worse) than Viktor Bout. If America tries to hold out, Russia starts the disinformation/social media blitz. This increases the probability of American's vilifying Biden and electing someone more Russia-friendly. In a best-case scenario for Putin (and worst case scenario for America and democracy). It's tough to chose the way you lose, but I do hope our leaders make the right decision here.
I might just be making a mountain out of random, incongruous grains of sand....but I think it's always wise to be vigilant when a verified badguy like Putin (who's no dummy, by the way) is already looking to make moves against you and then pulls up with something like this. It just seems a little too convenient in timing and in who they've detained (white guy, works for a right-leaning media source, etc.). Anyway, I hope I'm wrong. And I hope someone in intelligence is working on this angle anyway (and, better yet, has been working on it). I just don't want this to be the spark that reignites the fire that led to one of the darkest periods on American soil in my lifetime.
I may or may not add more to this post. It depends on how the situation develops.